Accountability
Our accuracy record
We publish dated, checkable calls about when biotech events will happen. This page is the record of how those calls turned out — including the ones we have not checked yet. Every dated catalyst call we have published, and whether it turned out right.
35
Calls come due
11
Scored
24
Not yet checked
7
Still ahead
Of the calls we have scored
0
Hit
3
Stale
4
Slipped
4
Wrong
Hit rate on scored calls: 0% — 0 of 11. We show no confidence interval with it on purpose: an interval would be a claim about how often we are right in general, and calls enter this table when their outcome can be established, which is not independent of what the outcome turned out to be. Read it against the 24 calls still unchecked. The counts above carry more information than the percentage does.
The misses are not one kind of error, and averaging them into one number hides which one is the real problem. Four are ordinary timing slips of 19 days to four months — the failure mode a catalyst calendar is allowed to have. Three were already public when we generated the page that called them upcoming, which is a sourcing failure, not a forecasting one. Four name a trial that does not exist, or attach a real trial's name to the wrong drug or the wrong disease, which is worse than either.
Selection rule for this first batch: the queue was worked oldest-first from 2026-04-05, and every call in that run that could be settled against a source we could open on 2026-09-19 was scored. Calls we could not settle were left unscored rather than skipped quietly, so this is not a set chosen for being wrong — but it is not a random sample either, because an outcome that plainly did or did not happen is easier to evidence than a quiet partial one. Read the counts, not the rate, until the backlog is closed.
How a call is scored
The event happened inside the window we published.
The event had already happened when we published it as upcoming. That is a sourcing failure, not a near miss.
The event happened, but later than we said. The date was wrong; the event was real.
The event did not happen as described — or the entry had the company, drug or stage wrong.
The window has passed and we have not yet established what happened.
An outcome is never recorded without an evidenceUrl. We do not score our own calls from memory — that would make this page worth less than nothing.
FDA decision calls can also be scored from our FDA decision tracker, which holds the company filing that stated each goal date, any filing that moved it, and the record of the outcome. It scores a call only as a hit, a slip or stale, each citing that record, and leaves anything it cannot settle for a person. Those scores are reviewed before they publish.
Calls awaiting a check (24)
Every call below has passed its window without us establishing the outcome. They are listed so the backlog is visible rather than quietly ageing out of view.
| Published for | Ticker | Event | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | AMLX | Phase 3 LUCIDITY topline data for avexitide in post-bariatric hypoglycemia | data readout | Not yet checked |
| 2026-09-22 | IONS | PDUFA decision for zilganersen in Alexander disease | pdufa | Not yet checked |
| 2026-09-19 | RARE | PDUFA decision for UX111 gene therapy in MPS IIIA (Sanfilippo syndrome type A) — resubmitted BLA | pdufa | Not yet checked |
| 2026-09-19 | — | PDUFA decision for Aqneursa (levacetylleucine) sNDA in ataxia-telangiectasia | pdufa | Not yet checked |
| 2026-09-15 | KOD | Phase 3 DAYBREAK one-year topline data for Zenkuda and KSI-501 in wet AMD | data readout | Not yet checked |
| 2026-09-08 | CNTB | Phase 2 Seabreeze STAT topline data for rademikibart in acute asthma exacerbations | data readout | Not yet checked |
| 2026-07-31 | ITER | Phase 2 topline data for tegavivint in CTNNB1-mutant solid tumors | data readout | Not yet checked |
| 2026-07-22 | PTCT | Phase 3 EVOLVE Phase 3 topline data for sepiapterin in PKU | data readout | Not yet checked |
| 2026-07-10 | RHHBY | Phase 3 SKYSCRAPER-01 OS update for tiragolumab in NSCLC | data readout | Not yet checked |
| 2026-06-28 | TARS | Phase 3 Galatea topline data for lotilaner in rosacea | data readout | Not yet checked |
| 2026-06-22 | RCKT | Phase 2 RP-A501 update in Danon disease at conference | conference presentation | Not yet checked |
| 2026-06-20 | CRNX | PATHFNDR-2 Phase 3 topline data for paltusotine in carcinoid syndrome | data readout | Not yet checked |
| 2026-06-15 | ARGX | Phase 3 topline data for efgartigimod in Sjogren's syndrome | data readout | Not yet checked |
| 2026-06-08 | NVO | REDEFINE-2 Phase 3 cardiovascular outcomes data for CagriSema at ADA 2026 | conference presentation | Not yet checked |
| 2026-06-01 | MRK | KEYNOTE-867 Phase 3 readout for subcutaneous pembrolizumab at ASCO 2026 | conference presentation | Not yet checked |
| 2026-05-31 | IOVA | Amtagvi label expansion data update at ASCO 2026 | conference presentation | Not yet checked |
| 2026-05-30 | REPL | Phase 3 IGNYTE-3 Phase 3 topline data in PD-1 failed melanoma | data readout | Not yet checked |
| 2026-05-28 | AZN | DESTINY-Breast09 Phase 3 OS update at ASCO 2026 | conference presentation | Not yet checked |
| 2026-05-20 | GERN | IMpactMF Phase 3 interim analysis for imetelstat in myelofibrosis | data readout | Not yet checked |
| 2026-05-14 | SMMT | HARMONi-6 Phase 3 topline data for ivonescimab in 1L PD-L1+ NSCLC | data readout | Not yet checked |
| 2026-04-28 | BNTX | BNT327 (PD-L1 x VEGF bispecific) Phase 2 expansion data in NSCLC | conference presentation | Not yet checked |
| 2026-04-24 | BEAM | BEAM-101 updated Phase 1/2 data in sickle cell disease at ASGCT | conference presentation | Not yet checked |
| 2026-04-22 | VKTX | VK2735 Phase 3 VENTURE enrollment update and potential interim look | data readout | Not yet checked |
| 2026-04-14 | MRNA | mRNA-1010 Phase 3 data for standalone flu vaccine | data readout | Not yet checked |
Found a call we got wrong?
Send it to corrections@clinicalinvestor.com with a link and we will score it here. A correction from a reader is the most useful thing this page can receive. See our methodology for how each type of content is produced.